Well, that’s anyone’s guess really when you consider the US’s extraction of Venezuela’s president to kick off the new year and the Trump administration’s endeavours for annexing Greenland.
Should that happen, it would no doubt spell the end of NATO.
Locally speaking, economic analysts are pointing to what they call cautious optimism for the South African economy in 2026. A number of factors are at play here and the same analysts cite the local economy ending 2025 off in a positive manner and expected GDP growth for 2026 of around 1.5%.
While that seems a small number, I would rather take any growth over stagnation without a bit of light at the end of the tunnel like some economies are facing.
Of course, anything can happen, and the notion of positivity could be derailed overnight. But when you look at the bigger picture, the South African economy is beginning to see the benefits of reduced rolling blackouts and further adoption of renewable energy, lower interest rates (with rates set to decrease more this year), improved investor confidence as a result of ratings downgrades, raised commodity prices – one of the biggest contributors to our GDP – and reined in inflation. We’ve even seen the private sector invited to help modernise the South African rail network.
Blanket US tariffs introduced during the course of 2025 haven’t quite had the great impact they were said to be going to have. In fact, depending on who you get your data from, US government revenue from Trump’s tariffs is already in decline. Their (tariffs’) inflationary effect has also not been as greatly felt as some expected. That’s because importing and exporting companies take haircuts and countries negotiate exemptions and compromises. And as a US expat friend told me anecdotally during a visit home during the holiday season, “Does my son need a new Batman costume for Halloween every year? No, he doesn’t. If it cost $15 last year and $18 next year, those that really want a new one will buy it.”
You also don’t just set up a factory and start manufacturing something overnight.
Beyond that though, the US Supreme Court is set to make a ruling soon as to whether or not the Trump administration’s invoking of tariffs was even legal. Lower courts have ruled that emergency economic measures such as utilising the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) like Trump did is at the discretion of Congress, and not the other way around.
Should the challenge to Trump’s tariffs be upheld then the US would need to refund some of the tariffs that were illegally imposed. Don’t expect it to end there though, should the ruling not go in Trump’s favour, he will simply use other statutes to try and push them through.
I guess we should all just be grateful that it hasn’t been as bad as it was initially expected to be.
Meanwhile, South Africa has eased antitrust rules to allow companies facing high electricity costs to cooperate on securing power supplies, in an effort to limit further industrial closures, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday.
The report said Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau has amended the Competition Act’s energy users’ block exemption through regulations published on 5 January. The changes allow companies in what are described as “industries in distress” to jointly buy electricity, share ownership of backup generation assets and engage collectively with energy suppliers. The exemption does not permit coordination on the pricing of goods or services.
While the regulations do not define which sectors qualify, Bloomberg noted that ferrochrome and manganese producers are in line to benefit. Both industries have curtailed production and reduced employee numbers citing rising electricity prices.
South Africa holds about three-quarters of global manganese ore reserves, but domestic processors face increasing competition from Chinese producers with lower energy costs.
I guess that’s 2026 off to a busy start. From all of us at Metalworking News, we wish you a successful year. May the chips fly!
Damon Crawford
Online Editor / Journalist
