South Africa is producing less steel while imports are taking a larger share of the market.

In the July 2026 issue of Steel Matters, the South African Iron and Steel Institute’s (SAISI) monthly newsletter, two of the main topics in the newsletter are Steel under pressure: Crude steel output continues to decline, with mills operating well below available capacity and, the import question. Primary and downstream steel imports remain elevated as domestic production weakens.

Secretary general Charles Dednam also recently published that: “South Africa must look beyond only the volumes of steel being imported into the country and should also consider how much of the country’s manufacturing base is being displaced by imported goods made from steel elsewhere?”

“Much of the attention falls on imports of coil, plate, bar, sections and other primary steel products he said in a recent article. These matter. They affect mill utilisation, pricing, jobs and investment. But the larger competitive threat is no longer limited to imported steel as a raw or semi-finished material. It is increasingly arriving as imported manufacturing.”

“China’s role in the global steel economy is unlike that of any other country. It produces steel at a scale that South Africa cannot compare with and, when domestic demand weakens, can redirect enormous volumes into export markets. This affects global prices directly. But it also affects South Africa indirectly through fabricated construction products, machinery, appliances, vehicles, industrial equipment and other goods containing embodied steel.”

“That is the part of the debate South Africa cannot afford to miss.”

According to SAISI for an industry already navigating soft domestic construction and infrastructure spend, a further half-empty order book met by a rising and increasingly concentrated wall of imports is a combination worth watching closely through the rest of 2026.

SAISI says South Africa produced 372 600 tons of crude steel in June 2026, down 10.1% from the 414 700 tons produced in June 2025. This represents a year-on-year decline of 42 100 tons. For the January–June 2026 period, South Africa’s crude steel production totalled 2.08 million tons, compared with 2.41 million tons in the corresponding period of 2025. This represents a decline of 328 700 tons, or 13.7% year-on-year.

The decline in South African production contrasts with developments in the broader African steel industry. African crude steel production increased by 20% year-on-year in June 2026, while production for January to June 2026 increased by 10% compared with the same period in 2025. South Africa therefore recorded a significantly weaker production performance than the regional aggregate.

Globally, crude steel production increased by 1.7% year-on-year in June 2026. However, cumulative global production for the first six months of 2026 was 0.7% lower than in the corresponding period of 2025. Against this backdrop, South Africa’s 13.7% decline in H1 2026 was considerably steeper than the global contraction.