China’s steel production in November 2025 was the weakest month in nearly two years and will ensure that the world’s biggest producer of the metal will post its lowest annual output since 2018, according to a Reuters report. However, imports of steel’s key raw material iron ore are likely to have risen to a record high in 2025, eclipsing the previous all-time high of 1.24 billion metric tons set in 2024.

The divergence between weak steel output and robust iron ore imports likely reflects several factors, including restocking of iron ore inventories amid competitive seaborne prices and optimism that Beijing’s stimulus efforts will eventually boost steel demand.

But while sentiment may still be positive for iron ore, the steel sector is dealing with the reality of weak demand in the key property construction sector and increasingly in manufacturing. China’s steel production fell to 69.87 million tons in November, down 10.9% from the same month a year earlier, according to official data released on 15 December 2025. This was the sixth consecutive monthly decline and the weakest output since December 2023.

For the first 11 months of the year, steel production was 891.67 million tons, down 4% from the corresponding period in 2024. If December steel output is around the same daily level as that in November, it would come in around 72.3 million tons, meaning total 2025 production would be about 964 million tons. This would be the lowest since 2018, when 928.3 million tons were produced and would represent a decline of about 4% from the 1.005 billion tons in 2024.

Steel prices have largely mirrored the weakness in production with Shanghai Exchange rebar contracts ending at 3 081 yuan ($437.64) a ton recently, down 10.1% since the close of 3 429 yuan on July 30, when the current downtrend commenced.

Iron strength
The price of iron ore has taken a different path. Singapore Exchange contracts have been rising since July 1, when they hit a low of $93.35 per ton, a 10-month-low.

The price of a ton closed at $106.25 recently in December 2025. This is a slight drop from the previous high close for the year, which was $107.90, also in December 2025.

Prices have risen in tandem with the strength of imports during the second half. November 2025 arrivals were 110.54 million tonnes, an 8.5% increase from a year ago. Iron ore imports for the first 11 months were up by 1.4%, to 1.139 billion tons. This means that they need to surpass 98 million tons in December, to beat the record total of 1.237 billion tons set in 2024.